Never bet against India
Early 2020s will be when India takes off and that is just the beginning.
Welcome to “Long India”. I am Harsh Gupta 'Madhusudan'. The big idea here is that economic convergence is happening and India is likely to be its biggest beneficiary for the coming generation. How true is that and how can we benefit from that are the questions I want to explore here.
I am an India-focused public markets investor. I have been doing proprietary investing for a financial group and am in the process of launching a fund. I am an alumnus of Bain, INSEAD, Dartmouth and MIT JPAL. I also briefly studied at IIT Delhi before dropping out. I am a CFA charterholder and have coauthored the book “Derivatives” (Cambridge University Press). I have coauthored another book on the Indian political economy which should be published soon by Westland (Amazon). I have written dozens of columns for many publications over the last decade or so.
Of course no market or economy moves in a straight line, nor does the India story. The last decade has been a disappointing one, but the past is not prologue. Pessimism is overdone, and betting against India could cost you your shirt and much more, unless the trade is a tactical one.
As far as India is concerned this time things really look different. At the same time, India is just part of the larger Emerging Markets and global growth narratives, albeit likely the most rewarding major market for investors going forward. I know that sounds crazy to some in the times of pandemics, slowdowns/recessions and new cold wars. But what is investing if not being eccentric as well as simultaneously both arrogant and humble.
A few of my key views are indeed off-consensus. They are based on my study of Indian markets, global macro as well as business and investing history. I of course reserve the right to be wrong and/or subconsciously biased in an increasingly polarised world. But I do try to ‘learn’ new insights regularly as well as ‘unlearn’ at least my conscious biases.
Hence when it comes to my views, I also reserve the right to turn on a dime - perhaps through your feedback! I look forward to airing my views here for this platform allows their authoring and distribution: something between informal tweet storms and gatekeeper-curated articles. Initially I will probably cross-post to reach those who do not sign up or are not active on social media.
I will have a mix of macro, sector and specific security-related posts, and while the focus will be on India I could also explore others regions occasionally. But please know that I am not a registered investment advisor in any jurisdiction as of now.
You should also always assume that I have a conflict of interest, even though I will proactively try to either flag it or avoid it. Do not buy or sell anything based on my advice; please do your own due diligence or go by the counsel of registered advisors.
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In the meantime, tell your friends!